General 2001 Hurricane Talk
A hefty tropical wave is moving through the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea. Tropical waters are real warm now. Get ready for August folks.
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I think this hurricane season has gone bust. The upper level winds in and around the ITZ are not conducive to significant tropical cyclone development. There may be a few strong storms, but this season is not likely to be nearly as bad as predicted. So far is quite tame. I also want to add that I am Not at all impressed with the National Hurricane Center's computer modeling track and intensity predictions. They typically have 6 or more models and forcasts, many of which diverge and frequently change over a short time span. Over the last 15 years their budget and resources have significantly increased but their accuracy has only marginally improved.
...it is unknown why there has been a lack of significant development in the deep tropical Atlantic so far. One could speculate that the atmosphere has been more stable than normal...inhibiting the development of deep convection...but that is hard to prove.
Tropical Prediction Center Forcaster Avila
Near proof positive that upper level atmospheric conditions are as important to generating a tropical cyclone as are warm SSTs.